master's thesis
DETERMINANTE JAVNOG DUGA SREDNJE I VISOKO DOHODOVNIH ZEMALJA

Anđelka Lovrić (2016)
University of Split
Faculty of economics Split
Metadata
TitleDETERMINANTE JAVNOG DUGA SREDNJE I VISOKO DOHODOVNIH ZEMALJA : diplomski rad
AuthorAnđelka Lovrić
Mentor(s)Josip Visković (thesis advisor)
Abstract
Javni dug predstavlja sva dugovanja države u određenom trenutku. Svrha ovog rada je ukazati na glavne determinante javnog duga u srednje i visoko dohodovnim zemljama. Stručna literatura ne daje jednoznačne odgovore za ovu problematiku. Kao potencijalne determinante spominju se inflacija, kamatna stopa, stopa rasta BDP-a, fiskalni saldo, realni tečaj te FDI. Za srednje dohodovne zemlje ekonomska literatura i prethodna istraživanja isticali su inflaciju, kamatnu stopu, stopu rasta BDP-a, realni tečaj te FDI kao glavne determinante, dok se za visoko dohodovne zemlje spominju fiskalni saldo i rasta BDP-a. Provedenim istraživanjem determinanti za ove dvije kategorije zemalja nailazi se na neka odstupanja rezultata u odnosu na teorijski dio. Period promatranja bio je 15 godina, od 1995. do 2010 god. Zemlje su podijeljene u dvije kategorije s obzirom na visinu prihoda. U kategoriju visoko dohodovnih zemalja analizirane su: Australija, Italija, Francuska, Njemačka, Sjedinjene Američke Države, Kanada, Danska, Češka, Grčka, Mađarska, Španjolska, Slovačka, Švedska i Švicarska. U kategoriji srednje dohodovnih zemalja analizirane su: Kina, Indija, Brazil, Indonezija, Meksiko, Turska, Kolumbija, Čile, Tajland, Peru, Filipini, Venezuela te Hrvatska. Statistički značajnom determinantom za visoko dohodovne zemlje pokazao se fiskalni saldo i to kao varijabla negativno povezane sa javnim dugom, odnosno pozitivni fiskalni saldo označavao je smanjenje javnog duga. Nadalje, varijabla realni tečaj, tj. njen regresijski parametar imao je pozitivni predznak, što označava da povećanje realnog tečaja (odnosno deprecijacija realnog tečaja) utječe na povećanje javnog duga. Uspoređujući rezultat sa teorijskim dijelom, nailazi se na odstupanje obzirom da su fiskalni saldo i rast BDP-a dominirali među teorijskim istraživanjima. U srednje dohodovnim zemljama važnim determinantama pokazali su se fiskalni saldo (u negativnoj vezi sa javnim dugom), inflacija (negativna veza sa javnim dugom), te kamatna stopa koja djeluje pozitivno na povećanje javnog duga. Kada se usporede rezultati sa teorijskom osnovom, uočava se da se sve tri navedene varijable također pojavljuju kao važne determinante za javni dug. Na odstupanje se nailazi kad je riječ o FDI-u i realnom tečaju, koji su imali teorijsku podršku, ali rezultati nisu bili signifikantni.
Keywordspublic debt the determinants of public debt middle and high income countries
GranterUniversity of Split
Faculty of economics Split
PlaceSplit
StateCroatia
Scientific field, discipline, subdisciplineSOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics
Study programme typeuniversity
Study levelgraduate
Study programmeEconomics
Academic title abbreviationmag. oec.
Genremaster's thesis
Language Croatian
Defense date2016-06
Parallel abstract (English)
Public debt represents all deficits of the country at a given time. The purpose of this paper is to indicate the main determinants of public debt in many countries. Professional literatures does not give unambiguous answers in this issue. Inflation, interest rate, GDP growth, fiscal bilance, real exchange rate, FDI stands out like potential determinants. For middle income countries, the economic literature and previous research have emphasized the inflation, interest rate, the rate of growth of GDP, the real exchange rate and FDI as a major determinant, while in high-income countries is mentioned fiscal balance and GDP growth. Conducted research between these two categories of countries, find result deviations in relation to theoretical part. The period of observation was 15 years, from 1995. to 2010. The countries are divided into two categories based on revenues. In the category of high-income countries analyzed: Australia, Italy, France, Germany, United States, Canada, Denmark, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Spain, Slovakia, Sweden and Switzerland. In the category of medium-income countries analyzed : China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Colombia, Chile, Thailand, Peru, the Philippines, and Venezuela. Statistically significant determinants of a high income countries showed the fiscal balance as a variable negatively related to the public debt (positive fiscal balance meant a reduction of public debt). Furthermore, real exchange rate had positive regression parametar, indicating that an increase in real exchange rate (depreciation of the real exchange rate) affects the increase of public debt. Comparing the results with the theoretical part, finds the discrepancy considering that the fiscal balance and GDP growth dominated the theoretical research. In middle-income countries through multiple regression shows that important determinants of public debt are fiscal balance (negatively related to public debt), inflation (negative correlation with public debt), and the interest rate that has a positive effect on the increase in public debt. When comparing the results with theoretical basis, it can be seen that all three variables also appear as important determinants of public debt. On deviation encountered in the case of FDI and real exchange rate, which have had a theoretical support, but the results were not significant.
Parallel keywords (Croatian)javni dug determinante javnog duga srednje i visoko dohodovne zemlje
Resource typetext
Access conditionOpen access
Terms of usehttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
URN:NBNhttps://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:124:587210
CommitterIvana Gizdić